Week #4 - Computer Predictions (First Run)

Good Evening Everyone,

Attached you will find the first run of the AbsolutePigskin.com computer predictions for week #4 of the college football season.  A few notes about this first run of the computer so you know how best to use the results.  Being that it is early in the season, there is bit of variation between the teams and the validity of their statistics.  What I mean is some teams like Alabama for example have played ALL their games against FBS schools.  On the other hand there are teams that have only played maybe 1 FBS opponent.  The AbsolutePigskin.com computer ONLY uses statistics gained against FBS opponents.

As a result some of the predictions are a little on the crazy side.  This early in the season it is best to avoid looking at any game that includes a team that has faced only 1 FBS school.  The more FBS opponents a team faces then the better the computer predictions will be.  By next week you will see some of these wild predictions disappear almost entirely as the statistical sample size for each team increases.

On the attached (see below) you will see a prediction for each and every team.  If a team does not have a game  this week or they do not face an FBS opponent then you will will see a bunch of blanks next to them.  

You will see to the right of each prediction a column labeled "SU Accuracy", (Straight Up Accuracy)  This is literally the current accuracy of the computer picking the straight up winner for a team.  It helps me determine how dialed in the computer is regarding a particular team.  It only is a starting point as there are some teams that might show a low SU Accuracy but the actual predictions only vary by a few points.  When the games are close a few points one way or the other makes all the difference in the outcome.  It is only a rough guide not a hard and fast way of picking the better games.

You will also see another column labeled "Total Pts Diff".  In short this is the total points per game off the computer currently is for a team offensively or defensively.  On both sides of the ball, offensively and defensively positive numbers are good numbers.  So if a team currently appears to be 2 points better per game offensively that means they are scoring on average 2 points more per game than what the computer is predicting.  If a team is scoring 2 points per better defensively that means they are allowing 2 FEWER points per game than is predicted.  If the numbers are negative then the opposites are true.  

With all that being said here is the first run of raw data predictions for the AbsolutePigskin.com Computer.  I will have actual specific picks that I like later this week.  (Hopefully tomorrow evening sometime.)

Weekly Results (Web Only).xlsx (60KB)

Week #3 - Data Grab Tool

For more info about the college football data grab tool click here.  

Otherwise here is the week #3 output of the AbsolutePigskin.com Data Grab Tool.  This week I'm happy to report that the NCAA has fixed the database link problems it was experiencing so all the statistics contained on the attachments should be complete.  Naturally if you notice anything funky please let me know.

Master Stat Dump Teams (Web Only).xlsx (3.6MB)

Picks Are Coming

Just as a site note. I've received some communications wondering why there has not been any picks as of yet.  The AbsolutePigskin computer needs about 3 weeks of data before it has enough information to come up with reasonable predictions on games. Expect the first set of early predictions this week with the full run starting next week.  Just have patience friends.  

Week #2: College Football Stats

Good Evening All!

Attached you will find the week 2 run of the AbsolutePigskin.com Data Grab.  If you want some more details about the thing click here.  

Some notes about this weeks run:

  1. The "location tool" is fixed.  The stats will now display the correct location, home, away or neutral for every game on a team's schedule.
  2. The NCAA is having some site issues today.  There are a few teams for which their database it either corrupted or there is a connection problem on their site.  I will check on this periodically over the next few days and as soon as the NCAA gets their crap together, at least for their statistical site, I will run the tool again to update to include the missing teams. Right now the teams with missing week #2 data are Georgia St., La.-Monroe, New Mexico St.  I think that is it for now but it's late and I could be forgetting another team with which the NCAA stat site was having problems.
  3. I have added the few new FBS schools that originally I forgot to add last week.  

Master Stat Dump Teams (Web Only).xlsx (3.5MB)

Week #1 - College Football Stats

Here is the first run of the AbsolutePigskin.com Data Grab Tool for week #1 of the season.  This tool compiles all the statistics, game by game, for each FBS school.  If there is a school that you find is missing from the list please let me know.  Now that I think about it, I think there are one or two new editions to the FBS this year that I might have to add.  They will be added for the week 2 run of the statistics.  As an important reminder, this stat compilation REMOVES STATISTICS GAINED AGAINST FCS schools.  The games against FCS schools are listed on the team pages but not on the "Stat Dump" page that pulls together all the totals.  

The totals found on the "Stat Dump" sheet are only those gained against FBS schools because for the purposes of my statistical analysis, I don't count FCS schools.  There is really no good way to weigh FCS schools properly and in the long run I find it more accurate to remove them from the equation completely.  You can find totals for the stats gained against FCS schools on the individual team stat sheets.  Another note is that the location column contained on each team page currently contains no data.  Long story short I found and fixed an error with that programming after I completed the stat run.  This tool automatically determines the location (home, away or neutral) for each game.  I know this is helpful information to some as they like to see how teams do at home vs the road.  Rest assured, this function will be in next week's stat run.

One last note is that yes I know 3rd down percentage is not yet included.  I am trying to find a good way to connect to that specific stat and the stat will be added sometime in the future.

Please click on the link listed to download the file.  The file is a simple excel worksheet, data only with no formulas or macros of any sort.  Feel free to do with it whatever the heck you want and more importantly I hope you find it to be increasingly helpful as the season progresses.

Master Stat Dump Teams (Web Only).xlsx (3.3MB) (This will be made available sometime between Sunday - Monday night each week of the season.)

Stat Compilation Example

The arrival of another college football season marks a new season for the AbsolutePigskin.com score predictor.  For those of you who are not familiar, the score predictor is a statistical analysis of every FBS college football team.  It provides relatively good predictions on the outcomes of every game every week (For FBS teams only).  Unfortunately the analysis does not start producing meaningful data until around week 3 of the season as it needs a large enough sample of data to get the numbers crunching so to speak.  Usually these first 3 weeks are spent with me tweaking one thing or another, testing scenarios using the last years statistics to hopefully find ways to improve the accuracy of the predictions.

In years past I used a website that provided the NCAA statistics needed to power the analysis, completely free of charge.  I am and forever will be grateful to that website; however, this year they have decided to charge for their statistical services.  I wasn't really interested in paying to download their statistics so I created my own tool that reaches out to the Internet and downloads the game by game statistics for each FBS team.  After it downloads the statistics it then cleans the data up and plops it into a spreadsheet for your use.  For at least the beginning of the season I plan on providing the raw data version of these statistics completely free of charge.  In the future I may make the stats available for a small donation to help fund my humble site here but for now I'm more worried about working out the bugs and making sure things are correct.

So without further ado I've attached a sample of the data produced by what I guess I will call the AbsolutePigskin Data Grab tool.  Hopefully people find it useful!

Note: The statistical totals compiled for each team ONLY include statistics gained against FBS schools.  The game by game statistics do contain some FCS schools but this is eliminated in the totals.  The totals contained in the attachment are the statistics for the 2013 season.  Once this week of games is completed I will post the stats for 2014.  Also you will notice a few random stats that appear to be missing in some of the totals screens.  Those are stats for which I am still working out some kinks in the automation process and should be coming soon.

AbsolutePigskin Data Grab Tool.xlsb (3MB)

Braxton Miller Announces He'll Be Back But Will He Be The Starter?

Reports out of Columbus, OH are that Braxton Miller has already announced his intention to return to Ohio State for the 2015 season.  For those of you seemingly without TV access or access to any sort of sports information, Miller will be out for the 2014 season due to a dislocated shoulder he suffered in a non-contact practice this week.  

There is no doubt that Braxton was one of the early favorites to win the Heisman trophy this season and there is little doubting that he appeared to be developing into one of the all time greats of Ohio State football.  This all being said if Braxton does indeed come back in 2015 and is healthy, is he guaranteed to be the starter?

Penciled in to replace the injured Miller this upcoming season is redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett.  A highly regarded 4-star recruit out of Texas, Barrett has reportedly been making strides in pre-season camp this year to recently assume the #2 spot on the depth chart behind Miller.  As with any redshirt freshman who has yet to see any meaningful action at the college level, experience currently his main negative.  You could have all the physical tools in the world but experience is key to any position,  especially at quarterback.

Fast forward to 2015.  Barring a meltdown by Barrett of epic proportions, one is safe to assume that with a year of experience under his belt that perhaps Barrett isn't such a sure fire bet to return to his spot as a backup with the return of Miller.   2015 will be an interesting year indeed if Braxton Miller does return healthy and ready to play.  Prior to the Braxton Miller injury many had Ohio State penciled in as a potential national title contender.  There is no doubt that Ohio State is talented but they are extremely young along the offensive line.  With an experienced offensive line and the possible return of Braxton Miller 2015 could end up being one of the best teams in Ohio State history.  By 2015 the question then becomes, does Miller still give Ohio State the best chance to win?  It will be interesting to see how Ohio State deals with the potential excess of riches at the quarterback position.  

Ohio State QB Hurt, Possibly Out For Season

Ohio State starting quarterback Braxton Miller hurt his shoulder today and early reports are he might be out for the entire season.  This is a HUGE blow to Ohio State as they were early favorites to contend for a national title.  Miller is a potential Heisman Trophy candidate this year and there is no overestimating his importance to the team.

Braxton Miller Update:

While the cupboard is not bare at Ohio State in terms of overall talent, backup quarterbacks redshirt Freshman J.T. Barrett and redshirt Sophomore Cardale Jones are largely untested.  Reports this week indicate that redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett has a slight lead over Cardale Jones.  J.T. Barrett highlights shown below.

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