After slacking off for the past week or so from writing anything on the website I figured it is time to get back on the horse and get things moving again.  I have been hard at work on a statistical analysis I have put together for all Division 1A, 1AA, and Division II football teams in the country.  (Since some 1A teams decided to make my job harder and play a DII school... yeah I'm talking to you Texas Tech, you should be embarrassed.)  After some tweaking and fine tuning over the past few weeks the ranking system is complete and as expected after a few trial runs the numbers are jiving with what is happening on the field.  I will spare you guys the nitty gritty details of how everything is calculated, it simply is way too involved for me to get in using any sort of simple explanation that won't put you to sleep within about a paragraph.  Just take my word for it that it is a lot of math, a lot of visual basic programming, and a lot of formulas.  Not only does this statistical analysis rank the teams of the top 25 based on their results and how those results compare with other teams but it also predicts winner for each and every Div. 1A game played each weekend.  So far through more functions I have built into the computer rankings the statistical analysis is correctly getting a touch over 70% of winners correct each week.  7 out of 10 is pretty darn good... especially if you are betting on the games.  (Not that I would EVER do such a thing.)  I have posted some trial runs in the past weeks of some predictions with varying success when the spread on a game is involved but I am slowly but surely building a score prediction function into the process so it predicts both the winner and the final score for each game. 

With all that being said, we are now getting to a point in the season where teams have played enough games to give a relatively meaningful sample of data to give an accurate analysis of who the top teams in the country are at this point.  For now I am only posting the top 25 but I will be posting rankings for all division 1A teams here soon.  There are a few things to know about this top 25 rankings system.  It is strictly a computer analysis that factors in the opponents each school has faced, factors in each and every statistic that the NCAA tracks and how those statistics rank against every other Div. 1A team, and it takes into account wins and losses.  This is NOT  A POWER RANKINGS.  I don't need to get emails from people saying team x will be team y and you can't understand why team y is ranked ahead of team x.  Power rankings, much like the polls, are a matter of opinion.  Just because on paper it looks like team x is more talented than team y doesn't mean team x has lived up to it's potential and taken care of business on the field.  This is the beauty of the analysis... no opinion is involved and results are earned on the field.  You could be the best team in the history of football but if you play the worst schedule, I'm sorry for your luck!  So without further ado here is the first edition of the AbsolutePigskin Top 25.  (Click on the image to view it full size.)  Lower scores are better.