Friday night sports a pretty decent match up between two non-BCS conference teams. The defending Rose Bowl champion TCU faces newly independent BYU at Dallas Cowboys stadium in Arlington, TX. It's a neutral site game folks...
- The AbsolutePigskin.com computer score predictor says TCU is a 3.9 point favorite against BYU.
- The last time TCU was a similar favorite was in game 3 when they were a 3.4 point favorite against La.-Monroe. TCU went on to win that game by 21 points in a game that was pretty close to prediction for the first half. Reports were that TCU coach Gary Patterson laid into his team at the half and they responded well in the 2nd half. TCU opened the 2nd half with a kick return for a touchdown and never looked back.
- Similarly TCU was a 1.7 point favorite against San Diego State in their sixth game of the season. TCU won that road game by 13 points. San Diego State was in the game but some key turnovers and a failed 4th down conversion early in the game on the TCU 14 ultimately doomed San Diego from keeping it closer.
- Conversely the last time BYU was a similar underdog was week 3 when they were a 4.6 point underdog against Utah. They lost that game by 44 points due in no small part to 7 turnovers from BYU. BYU also was starting sophomore QB Jake Heaps at the time. He has since been an after thought and has been mostly replaced with junior quarterback Riley Nelson. Nelson adds a new dimension to the offense, a run pass threat, that Heaps does not offer. The offense has picked up as a result.
- Game 7, BYU was a 1 point underdog to Oregon St.. They won this game by 10 points thanks in no small part to the change at quarterback.
I think this one might end up being closer than it might appear on the surface but the AbbyPig Computers are telling me take TCU -13
RESULT: BYU COVER +3
FINAL: BYU 28 TCU 38 (A little bit of a backdoor cover as BYU scores late...and that's why they call it gambling folks.)
10-27-2011 8:17 PM