Pretty much the biggest game of the weekend can be found, not surprisingly, in the SEC.  Top ranked LSU hosts #3 Arkansas.

• The AbsolutePigskin computer views LSU as a 9.4 point favorite over Arkansas
  • Game 8 vs. Auburn:  The computer views LSU as a 13.1 point favorite over Auburn.  LSU won this game by 35 points.  A closer examination of the play by play in the game shows Auburn committed 2 turnovers but one of which occurred late when the game was pretty much decided.  The other was an interception return for a touchdown.  Take this out of the equation and this is still a 28 point victory for LSU.
  • Game 7 at Tennessee:  The computer views LSU as a 8.6 point favorite over Tennessee.  LSU won this game by a whopping 31 points.  A look at the play by play and this is more like a 24 point victory for LSU if you take out the turnover from Tennessee.
  • Game 3 at Mississippi St.  The computer views LSU as a 9.7 point favorite in this game.  LSU had a ton of penalties in this game but Miss. St. ended up losing the turnover battle by one cancelling out a good bit of the gains from the turnover.  When you examine the play by play of the game and this game falls exactly where the computer predicted it.  Basically a 10 point win as opposed to the actual LSU 13 point win.
• Arkansas has only been a similar underdog once this season...
  • Game 4 at Alabama:  The computer views Arkansas as a 8.7 point underdog against Alabama.  Arkansas lost this game by 24 points.  A closer look at the play by play for this game reveals a game that statistically was more like a 10 point Alabama win.  Alabama benefited from an interception return for a touchdown as well as a punt return for a touchdown in this game.  Alabama is viewed as being dead even with LSU which played out on the field game 9.  The computer views Alabama as a .2 point favorite currently over LSU.  LSU won the game by 3 points but Alabama missed two field goals.  In essence this game was dead even and could have went either way.

Weighing how each team has compared against the computer's predictions, this is shaping up to be a 16 point LSU victory.

PICK:  LSU -11.5

RESULT:  WIN, LSU COVER +12.5

FINAL:  LSU 41  ARKANSAS 17